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We get too far into this update, couple of reminders.
As, you start to wonder: why is it raining so much, why we have rain every day, a chance of rain.
Well,? Remember that May is the rainiest time or rainiest month of the year.
So between that last week and April, all of this month into the first say, week of June.
That's about the rainiest 6 weeks.
We will see here in East, Texas, so., Our, weather pattern is reflecting that this year.
This is pretty typical.
Nothing out of the ordinary.
What might be a little out of the ordinary.
Is this current weather pattern that we are forecasting for this week.
Essentially? What is happening is we are getting a high pressure block here into the northern plains, all the way back into southern Canada.
As that occurs.
It essentially slows this low pressure system down from moving West to east.
You'll notice that black line.
That circles, this low pressure, area.
Well that refers or indicates that this is becoming a closed low.
So as it closes off, it slowly, moves.
And as it slowly moves.
Well guess: what? It's pulling in all of this moisture from the Pacific, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, And.
From time to time.
We have these little disturbances rotating around that larger area of low pressure that will come through East Texas.
Western Oklahoma into West TX.
There could be up to a foot of rain.
We may have 5-6 or even 7 inches of rain over the next seven days.
As a result of all of the rain.
The temperatures at night because of the cloud cover will be above average.
We may not see an average morning until perhaps Wednesday the 17th is the temperature drop to around 62 degrees and that tail end of that 10 day, forecast.
Is a little cooler than average, but when you look at the daytime high, supposed to be about 81 Now, each afternoon, we may make it just slightly.
Above average, with temperatures up to about 83 to 86, but they'll, be several days.
We were where we are, right at or below average.
For instance, next Monday, Tuesday.
We have highs in the upper 70s, and even Wednesday of this week we have highs in the upper 70s.
Rain chances, 60% chance again on Tuesday, 80%, chance, Wednesday, 60%, chance, Thursday., Friday, Saturday and Sunday, 40% chance, but we still have rain chances lingering into Monday of next week.
On top of that.
We have an excessive rainfall outlook in the marginal category, tomorrow.
That means we have a chance to see isolated, flash flooding around East Texas anywhere that you see blue.
So that does include Tyler.
It, does include Longview, Jacksonville and Henderson.
We could see heavy downpours at times and that could cause some St.
Slight risk of not severe weather, but flash flooding from Crockett and Lufkin down to the South.
And, then Wednesday in due in part to the fact that we put all this rain into the soil on Tuesday, Wednesday.
The whole area has a slight risk of flash flooding, so scattered flash flooding is possible.
Because of that, Wednesday will be a CBS19 eye on weather, day.
We're going to have to watch.
Or some high water spots across East Texas.
And, of course, reminding you not to drive into high water, flash flooding can really be troublesome when it comes to flash flooding.
A foot of fast moving water can move your car 36 inches.
That can sweep the car off its tires and it can become just moving and you're at the beck and call of where the water is going at that point.
Let's take a look at late Monday night on Future Skycast.
We have southerly winds, a few scattered showers still left over, but the overnight hours should be dry.
Tuesday should begin dry.
There's a upper level low that is spinning out near the Baja of California, and that will be moving through South Texas tomorrow and then eventually to the north.
It should begin to save us, send us waves of rain on Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The low itself.
So by Wednesday? Below is now spinning somewhere between Crockett and Groveton.
Wednesday, also in the afternoon right in this pocket.
Here, not only heavy rain and Carthage, Marshall and Jefferson back to Henderson.
There will be an increased amount of wind in this area.
So severe weather.
May we may have a few severe thunderstorms right in this area.
Not outlook by the Storm Prediction Center yet may get a an outlook, but for right now it's going to be that zone that we'll look at for Wednesday., Into, Wednesday afternoon, the showers continue.
Finally, coming to an end, becoming more scattered again: Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
So, the next seven days.
Let's break this down for you.
Look at all this, the seven day, rainfall total, this red and purple- that is in the three 2 1/2 to 3 inch range here in East Texas over the next seven days.
We look at the next two days.
We break that down.
Or next three days, perhaps.
If we can do that.
OK, we're not going to be able to show you that, but and at any rate over the next week.
We are talking about 2 1/2 to 3 inches of rainfall, maybe even a little bit more in some spots.
That will only add to our springtime totals, which have topped 10 inches at Tyler Longview and are now over a foot at Lufkin, with Lufkin having almost four and 3/4 of an inches more than it should.
This time of the spring, Longview has more than an inch, and for the year all of our reporting sites are anywhere from 1 1/2 to almost 4 inches above average, so likely we will add to that.
If we look long, range, May 16th to the 22nd near to slightly above average rainfall favored here in East Texas.
Above average rainfall likely out over the desert, Southwest.
It dries out over the northern plains.
Let's look at the forecast for tonight.
Down to 67 in Mount Pleasant.
68 in Pittsburgh, under partly cloudy skies.
The showers and thunderstorms should fade away., 68.
Henderson 66 in Jacksonville, Athens up to 7068 at Longview.
And over deep East Texas, we'll see highs in the upper 60s at Crockett, at Lufkin, and at Hemp, Hill.
Wind and wind gusts on Tuesday.
Winds will be out of the southeast, sustained at about 6 to 8 miles an hour, gusting at times up to 10 to 13 miles an hour.
Windiest part of the day, likely around the noon to one or two o'clock time: frame.
High, temperatures on Tuesday, mid 80s before the showers and thunderstorms, arrive.
85 in Pittsburgh.
87 at Linden, 85 Also at Gilmer and Mineola.
82 at Palestine, Henderson up to 85 and in Carthage up to 84 Deep.
East Texas highs in the lower 80s, with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Likely by the end of the day.
Hemphill, only 82 degrees gross and up to 81.
Your bill, Scott White Texas by the Joy Hospital 10 day, forecast.
So, the rain chances continue mainly in the afternoon Tuesday.
Watch for flash flooding., Wednesday Scattered thunderstorms.
Thursday, Friday, Saturday, scattered thunderstorms., Mother's, Day, scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday, scattered thunderstorms.
Showers on Tuesday.
Then, we begin to drop out or begin to dry out.
I should say on what Wednesday and Thursday in days 9:00 and 10:00.
As for temperatures.
Looking long range, August 16th to 22nd below average.
Temperatures are favored here in East Texas, West TX, where it will be Rainier cooler., Than average temperatures are likely the Pacific Northwest much much warmer than average.
Temperatures are likely And just for some perspective.
The average high this time of the year, 84 average low around 65 for parts of East Texas.
It looks like a Rainier and cooler weather pattern setting up for the next 7 to 10 days and it may last up to 14 days.
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